2014, despite international efforts, was the warmest of the last one hundred fifty years. It was not for long. He came 2015 and was crowned as the warmest year on record. Although, according to data from NASA, 2015 also will be short: there is a 99% chance that 2016 pulverize the record last year. It is the first time we see three records in three consecutive years.
But that’s nothing. If for a moment forgets the calendar year, we discovered that the twelve warmest consecutive months of history occurred between 1 July 2015 and 30 June 2016. That is, the last twelve months have been the warmest since we have data. A record that we have broken 10 times in the last ten months.
Ten months breaking records
Communicating climate change is very complex. The climate and temperatures of a particular area, not directly relate to the average temperatures of the World. So while we read the news while it is snowing, we have the habit of talking about warmest years in January for the simple fact that the calendar year begins in January.
But the truth is that there is no reason to focus solely on calendar years. If you look at the sequences of 12 months (regardless of when they begin), we would realize that ranging from July 2015 to June 2016 have been the warmest year on record. Surpassing the previous record heat of 12 consecutive months: the year that ran from June 2015 to May 2016. Since September last year, we have broken that record over and over again with each month being added to the record. These ten records successive give us a clear idea of the moment in which we live.
June was the warmest in history June. Global average temperatures were 0.9 degrees warmer than the average for the 20th century according to NOAA and NASA 0,79 degrees by. Both agencies agree on two things: June adds to the records months of last times and that the trend, but keeps rising, has slowed.
Waiting for La Nia
This huge wave of global heat has been a “perfect storm climate’ in which have combined the progressive global warming with El Nio especially large. But El Nio is already in retreat and the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific are gradually cooled.
That is starting to show in the data. While February 2016 to February 2015 exceeded 0.33 degrees, June , he beats his counterpart only 0.02. This does not take away importance to the event, at the end of the June was the fourteenth consecutive month that has beaten the world record of temperatures. But it does reflect the menara that has been holding back the trend upward as predictably record streak will end soon.
A problem that goes beyond the specific temperatures
In a press conference last month, Gavin Schmidt (the director of the NASA Goddard Institute) explained that it was the first time that publicly valued and analyzed data from the first half of the year. And this decision is motivated by the fact that “the average temperatures of the last few months are well above anything we’ve ever seen.”
The extent of Arctic sea ice also has reached historic lows. Overall, NASA believes that the warming of recent years is due by 40% to El Nio and 60% to other factors related to global warming. We must not forget that the Earth is heating upbetween 20 and 50 times faster than it would heat due to natural processes of climate change.
The slowdown of the temperatures will from now on is great news, but we must not forget that hidden under the influence of La Nia climate change is making mischief. This is no time to slow the fight against global warming.